US National Intelligence Council Report on Sub-Saharan Africa, 2005

Summary as pertains to Nigeria:

  • Prediction of outright collapse of Nigeria as a nation-state within the next 15 years...
  • States that: "while currently Nigeria's leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja.

US Intel got it quite right.

Nevertheless, we will make sure that it does not take anywhere close to 15 years to put Nigeria in its grave, because Nigeria has already caused, and continues to cause, unfathomable physical and psychic suffering, anguish, and trauma to all peoples of ethnic nations forced by the British colonial government, without the peoples' consent, into an unworkable union, half a century or so ago.

Incidentally, Peter Smithers, a British colonial officer who was one of the persons of reference in this colossal mistake, just this month owned up to the fact that it was an egregious error to have forced these ethnic nations with nothing in common into one country, lamenting that the British lacked the hindsight of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union in those colonial times. He also stated that without serious restructuring, Nigeria as presently configured will continue to pose a serious and insurmountable problem resulting in ongoing loss of lives. He authored a document titled "Nigerian Lessons."

By coincidence, Mr. Smithers' statement came within 24 hours of a similar admission by General Obasanjo at an unrelated function. General Obasanjo, while lying to the peoples suffering in Nigeria, had two months earlier claimed publicly that God put Nigeria together, hence, the "oneness" of Nigeria was an indisputable and untouchable subject. In the aforementioned admission, the General was to lambast the British for being responsible for forcing different ethnic nations and regions "with nothing in common" into one unworkable union called Nigeria, and at that, without the consent of the peoples, and only for the sole benefit of the British who cared nothing about the interest of the ethnic nations. He blamed this cobbling together of Nigeria by the British--hence, the British--for all the problems of Nigeria today. He also suggested radical restructuring as necessary in order to overcome these problems.

The US intelligence report therefore is consistent with the British evaluation, and even with Obasanjo's recantation. One would therefore assume that the General would see the merits of the report; rather, he lashes out at the US, and uses the report to score cheap political points. He achieves this by presenting the US as a common enemy to the Nigerian Senate and National Assembly, based on this report, thereby getting them to close ranks around him, at a time when  both houses were working on impeaching him for egregious constitutional infractions. These officials now try to outdo one another in their condemnation of the US. In so doing, by refusing to read the handwriting on the wall, and by refusing to face the problem that is Nigeria, the very so-called leaders of Nigeria revel in their hypocrisy and denial, hence, witlessly contribute to the ultimate fulfillment of the prediction of the intelligence report.

We post the response to the report by Obasanjo as carried by a Nigerian Newspaper, and the link to the Intelligence report itself: .

We also post our response, in the form of the Voice of Biafra International (VOBI) broadcasts News Analysis transcript of May 28 2005, to Obasanjo's response.

Nigeria is failing, is falling: no question about that. The only question is whether she will meet her demise with an implosion, an explosion, or a whimpering sigh. Either way, Biafra actualization is our goal and our destiny; it is set..